Summer 2007 continued the Institute for Collaborative Innovation (ICI) research tradition, bringing together old and new participants to address issues of data overload in intelligence analysis. My research throughout the summer addressed multiple topics, including developing approaches to capturing and sharing analytic process, expanding our findings on analytical rigor, and (to a lesser extent) exploring concepts for coping with uncertainty in information analysis.

Research Team

Alex Morison

David Tinapple

Luke Woods

Daniel J. Zelik



Research Support

Emily S. Patterson

David D. Woods

Creating Insight into the Analysis Process

This research asks the question, “How can we make an information analysis process observable?” The goal of this project is to find new and interesting directions to explore in revealing information analysis process. In order to accomplish this we setup a workstation to record the process of a single analyst. The workstation consists of a computer with an internet browser, an editor, and a means to record short audio tracks. Several students studying Security and Intelligence at The Ohio State University performed a one hour analysis on a single question related to their area of expertise. Their product was a one page analysis, which was completed by the end of the one hour period.


These recorded analyses were then used as the base data for a process playback interface that allows for the playback and mark up of a recorded analysis process. In exploring approaches to increase the observability of information analysis process, the process playback interface represents one of many possible methods for connecting the analysis product with analysis process. This interface is illustrated in the poster found below.

Process Playback Interface Poster (PDF)





Other ICI 2007 Productions

The below handout outlines the dimensions of the rigor attribute model, also providing a partial bibliography of the to-date publications and productions relating to analytical rigor in information analysis.

Analytical Rigor Handout (PDF)



Although it did not manifest in the summer’s final products, the below document details some of the directions explored by the uncertainty and predictive analysis team. The problem of uncertainty in information analysis describes the difficulties inherent in coping with indeterminate information—particularly the challenges of estimating, evaluating, synthesizing, and acting upon it. Our approach to addressing the issue of uncertainty—driven by the perspective of maintaining adaptive capacity in the face of change—explores alternative ways to capture, represent, and understand uncertain information. This exploration focuses on technology forecasting and predictive analysis as a manifestation of future-oriented uncertainty and as an interesting case for the study of uncertainty.

Current Directions: ICI Uncertainty & Predictive Analysis Teams Slides (PDF)



This poster includes an overview of a model for how analysts hedge against uncertainty. We use an accepted model of intelligence analysis as a framework to consider uncertainty throughout the iterative process.

Institute for Collaborative Innovation 2007: Intelligence Analysis Workshop



In anticipation of the 2006 Human Factors & Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting I assembled a folded handout to be used in recruiting participants for the 2007 CPoD / ICI Summer Institute. As described in the handout, CPoD represents an interdisciplinary consortium of world-class researchers pooling expertise in cognitive systems engineering, political science, design, cognitive science, field research, perception, and computer science with results on studies of analysis, methods for innovation, and design of user-centered support to purse solutions to data overload problems in information analysis and comprehension.

< BackHome.html

Hedging Against Uncertainty Poster (PDF)



As part of the kickoff events for the Institute for Collaborative Innovation I helped to organize a one day Intelligence Analysis Workshop designed to introduce new participants to the study of intelligence and information analysis as well as to our relevant work from past summers. The website below serves as a repository for the materials used during and the insights that emerged from the workshop.