Distant Supervision--Local Action Given the Potential for Surprise

 

 

David D. Woods

Cognitive Systems Engineering Laboratory

Institute for Ergonomics

The Ohio State University

Columbus, Ohio  USA 43210

 

Lawrence G. Shattuck

Department of Behavioral Sciences and Leadership

United States Military Academy

West Point, New York  USA 10996

 

Cognition, Technology and Work, 2, 86—96, 2000

 

 

Plans, Surprise, and Adaptation

 

Process control (Woods, O’Brien, and Hanes, 1987), military command and control (van Creveld, 1985; Shattuck and Woods, 1997), and air traffic management (Smith et al., 1998) are examples of distributed supervisory control systems.  Distributed supervisory control systems are hierarchical and cooperative.  They include remote supervisors who work through intelligent local actors to control some process. 

 

With this framework, human supervisors, designers, and procedure writers can all be viewed as remote supervisors who provide plans and procedures to multiple local actors. The distant supervisors have a broader scope and a better understanding of the overarching goals and constraints for the larger distributed system.  The local actors have privileged access to the monitored process and what is actually happening “on the ground” within their field of view and narrower scope.

 

These plans and procedures often are inadequate to cope with the potential for surprise in specific situations (Woods and Roth, 1988; Woods et al., 1994). Given the potential for surprise and privileged access to data about the evolving situation, local actors must adapt the plans and procedures to the situation based on their understanding of the intent and goals behind the detailed steps in the plan (this is often referred to as the intent behind the plan).

 

The potential for surprise in a field of practice, as well as other factors, lead plans and procedures to be underspecified (Suchman, 1990; Woods, Roth and Bennett, 1990).  For example in one study of device troubleshooting, a rule based expert system’s directions to human technicians functioned as a kind of plan linking the expectations, analyses, and heuristics of a remote designer to the local situation—an actual broken system to be restored to service.  Inevitably, in both anticipated and unanticipated ways, complicating factors arose which challenged execution of the troubleshooting plan.  For example, impasses arose where a diagnostic test requested by the machine expert could not be carried out given other circumstances.  The plans and procedures were underspecified in the face of the potential for surprise, requiring technicians to “supply knowledge and act outside of the scope and direction” of the expert system (Roth, et. al., 1987). As Suchman (1987) summarized, “instructions must be interpreted with respect to a collection of actions and circumstances that they never fully specify;” in other words, “plans are resources for action.”

 

Woods (1984) found in studies of simulated and actual nuclear power plant emergency operations that “good operations require more than rote rule following.”  Two types of failures can occur when “events demanded a relatively variable sequence of component actions and extensive feedback from the environment in order to adapt to unpredictable constraints or disturbances” (Woods, O’Brien, and Hanes, 1987):

·       “Type A problems where rote rule following persisted in the face of changing circumstances that demanded adaptable responses.”

·       “Type B problems where adaptation to unanticipated conditions was attempted without the complete knowledge or guidance needed to manage resources successfully to meet recovery goals.”

In these studies, either local actors failed to adapt plans and procedures to local conditions, often because they failed to understand that the plans might not fit actual circumstances, or they adapted plans and procedures without considering the larger goals and constraints in the situation. In the latter type B problems the failures to adapt often involved missing side effects of the changes in the replanning process (Woods, 1988; Woods et al., 1994). 

 

Shattuck and Woods (1997) found the same pattern in a study of how local actors adapted when surprises occurred in simulated command and control scenarios and how they used their commander’s statement of intent behind the plan in adapting to unexpected events.  At one extreme, practitioners would rotely follow the original plans as described by the supervisor with no regard for the local complicating factors.  At the other extreme, practitioners would act completely autonomously, leaving their supervisors ‘out of the loop’ and failing to coordinate with other local actors toward an organizational target.  The results demonstrate the need to strike a cooperative balance between remote supervisors and local actors, where local actors have the knowledge and authority that they need to respond to unanticipated local situations in ways that support achieving higher level goals. 

 

The very high potential for surprise in military operations leads organizations to develop a means to support skill at adapting to surprise within the context of larger plans. In command and control, supervisor-local actors teams practice communicating commander’s intent and using intent information to develop skill at adapting to surprise (Klein. 1993; Shattuck and Woods, 1997).  Similarly, the potential for surprise is high in space mission operations, and here too we see an organization that has developed a means to balance distant supervision with local adaptation.

 

Watts-Perotti (2000) observed that space shuttle mission control teams wrestle with the relationship between contingency plans and the unique characteristics of anomalous situations. During a space shuttle mission an anomaly occurred during the ascent phase. The anomaly disrupted plans for the mission.  Among the reverberations of the disrupting event, a previously written contingency plan directed the controllers to drastically shorten the mission.  Was this plan relevant to the situation they faced? What was the intent and assumptions behind that rule?  How did this situation relate to that intent and assumed situation?  How did this contingency plan apply to the tradeoffs and risks in the situation they faced? How should the plans be adapted for this mission, given the anomaly, and how does this situation teach us to revise the plans for future missions?

 

Watts-Perotti analyzed the cooperative interactions across multiple teams in the replanning process as they coped with the consequences of the disrupting event.  The teams engaged in a sophisticated process of considering the implications of the anomaly for future plans, evaluating possible contingencies in light of the anomaly, and revising mission plans using the previous procedures as a resource.  The study revealed a variety of mechanisms by which mission control balanced distant plans as a guide to action with the need to adapt to surprising events. 

 

Resilience

These findings, from observations across multiple domains, illustrate an inherent and fundamental tradeoff in the relationship between remote supervision and local action in establishing the framework for adaptation (Hollnagel, 1993; Ashby, 1956).  We will call skill at this tradeoff the resilience function of a distributed system. 

 

Supervisors and the larger organizational context must determine the latitude or flexibility they will give actors to adapt plans and procedures to local situations given the potential for surprise in that field of activity (Hirschhorn, 1993).  Supervision that establishes centralized control inhibit local actors’ adaptations to variability, increasing the risk of Type A failures.  At the other extreme is supervision that provides local actors complete autonomy.  In the latter case, the goals and constraints important in remote supervisors’ scope are disconnected from the activity and decision making of local actors. As a result, the response across multiple local actors may not be coordinated and synchronized properly, increasing the risk of Type B failures.  Skill is a resilience process in distributed cognition that balances the risks across the two types of failure on either side of the tradeoff function (Shattuck and Woods, 1997; Woods and Patterson, 2000).